The Northern Lights in Iceland: What’s Ahead

For centuries, the northern lights were a source of great mystery. Cultures around the globe had their own beliefs and legends about the aurora. Today, modern technology and scientific innovation help us understand how and why the northern lights occur. In fact, we can partially predict the intensity of the northern lights by looking at a measurement known as a solar cycle. To learn more about the northern lights in Iceland over the coming years, we asked some questions to our resident astronomer Sævar Helgi Bragason. Read his answers to learn what’s ahead for the northern lights in Iceland.

What is a Solar Cycle and how does it affect our ability to see the northern lights?

A solar cycle is an approximately eleven year period during which solar activity fluctuates between a maximum and minimum. Over the course of a solar cycle, active areas on the sun called sunspots become more numerous. Eventually, a solar maximum is reached. Close to solar maximum, sunspot areas are frequent sources of solar flares and sometimes powerful coronal mass ejections or CMEs. CMEs are massive bursts of charged particles, mainly electrons, that travel through space. When these particles reach Earth, they can trigger the northern lights, creating stunning displays of colorful and dynamic northern lights.

Stormy northern lights – meaning bright, colorful and dynamic auroras – are quite common close to solar maximum. In fact, we are currently in the midst of a solar maximum until late 2024. Such breathtaking displays are a bit less common during a solar minimum. Based on our current predictions, the next solar minimum should be reached in about 2030.

How is the peak of Solar Cycle 25 expected to influence the frequency and intensity of the northern lights in Iceland over the coming years?

Coronal mass ejections can cause very intense aurora activity. However, it’s important to keep in mind that not all coronal mass ejections are Earth directed. Some are hurled away from Earth while others just barely interact with Earth. It’s only when they are directed at the Earth that we see extreme northern lights displays, like we saw on October 10-11 2024. Displays like that are quite rare.

Counter-intuitively, the frequency of the northern lights actually increases in the years shortly after solar maximum. As a result, we can now say that the best northern lights years are ahead of us. You are actually more likely to see bright and beautiful northern lights a year or two after solar maximum. That’s great news for aurora chasers.

This is because coronal holes – openings in the Sun’s corona – are more frequent after solar maximum. During this time, the Sun is a bit more quiet and coronal holes are more stable. These large openings eject fast moving solar wind into space, sort of like a garden sprinkler. If a coronal hole is facing the Earth, then this fast solar wind regularly causes powerful aurora storms. When such conditions occur, we are often able to see bright and dynamic northern lights for two, three or even four days in a row.

On the other hand, aurora storms that follow coronal mass ejections are often very short lived and more random. If you want to see a proper northern lights display, you can be quite confident about visiting in 2025, 2026, 2027 and 2028. Those will be great aurora years and, of course, Hotel Rangá is the perfect place to see the northern lights.

What makes Iceland a particularly good location for viewing auroras during Solar Cycle 25’s peak and the years following?

Iceland is located under the aurora oval. This means that northern lights appear in our skies every single night. Yes, every night. It’s just that sometimes clouds block the view or the lights are faint and hard to see with the naked eye. But when the solar winds are blowing fast, magic happens up there. And to witness that, you have to have a bit of luck. You need good space weather conditions and clear skies.

Around the equinoxes, even slow moving solar winds can spark lovely displays of northern lights. This can occur even though the outlook calls for a quiet night. It’s all due to Iceland’s perfect location underneath the aurora oval.

How will the upcoming solar maximum in 2025 differ from previous solar cycles in terms of auroral activity?

This solar maximum appears to be quite similar to previous ones, which is good news for aurora chasers. That means that if we are lucky and sunspot areas facing Earth direct CME’s towards us, we can witness some stunning displays for the next year or so. After that, when the sunspot number decreases, coronal holes become more stable and abundant and the frequency of aurora storms increases for a few years.

What tips would you give to visitors in Iceland who want to increase their chances of witnessing the northern lights in the coming years?

Stay in a hotel in a dark location, like Hotel Rangá. Keep an eye on the space weather and don’t focus too much on the Kp-index. The Kp-index is not good for predicting aurora activity and does not describe how intense the lights will be. Rather, chase clear skies and keep a close eye on the real time space weather data, especially the speed of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field.

We want the solar wind to be fast (more than 400 km/s) and the strength of its magnetic field to be high (called Bt). Then we need Bz to face south, if it’s facing north not much will happen, but keep in mind it can flip suddenly. Cloud cover forecast for Iceland and real time space weather data is available at a website called icelandatnight.is.

Can we still see the northern lights even after Solar Cycle 25 reaches its peak / during a solar minimum?

Yes! The best aurora years are ahead of us. What that I mean we’ll see bright northern lights even more frequently after solar maximum, due to the effect of coronal holes.

Are there any new technologies or methods being used to predict auroras more accurately?

In the past couple of decades, aurora predictions have been revolutionized. This is mostly thanks to space-based satellite observations. Nowadays, we have spacecrafts constantly monitoring the Sun and measuring the solar wind and relay it to Earth in real time. This data is key to predicting the northern lights.

More Hotel Rangá Blog Posts About the Northern Lights

• The Best Hotel to See the Northern Lights in Iceland
• The Northern Lights in Iceland: Month by Month
• Taking Photos of the Northern Lights at Hotel Rangá